Sat, Oct 11, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Montréal Canadiens 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 08 | 210 | 110 | 328 |
| CHI | 06 | 24 | 012 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:45MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Nick Suzuki · Bat, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 4:34CHISam RinzelAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Frank Nazar · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:45MTLZachary BolducPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–1
- P2 9:15CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Frank Nazar, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 19:45MTLKaiden GuhleGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (21)
- P1 3:35CHIRyan Donato: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 4:51MTLNick Suzuki: Holding2 min
- P1 9:31CHIMatt Grzelcyk: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:58CHIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
- P1 15:40CHISam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:46CHIWyatt Kaiser: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:58CHILouis Crevier: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 4:58CHIWyatt Kaiser: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:58MTLAlex Newhook: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:58MTLKaiden Guhle: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 4:58CHILouis Crevier: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:58CHILouis Crevier: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 8:29MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:35CHISam Lafferty: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:12CHIConnor Bedard: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:12CHIConnor Bedard: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:12MTLAlexandre Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:08CHIColton Dach: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:47CHIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:31MTLKaiden Guhle: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:41MTLNoah Dobson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský8:43
xG 0.37–0.00 (99%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Anderson – Evans – Newhook2:03
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Dach – Bolduc4:07
xG 0.11–0.04 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Anderson – Evans – Laine3:41
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Dobson11:45
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Carrier – Guhle4:25
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Xhekaj – Hutson2:45
xG 0.05–0.10 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Mikheyev – Greene3:45
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar5:00
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Dach – Bedard8:30
xG 0.05–0.39 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrevier – Kaiser4:40
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kaiser5:04
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Murphy – Grzelcyk3:37
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).