Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Columbus Blue Jackets 7, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 19 | 210 | 413 | 732 |
| MIN | 014 | 220 | 218 | 452 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29CBJMiles WoodAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 0:07CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 6:18MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 8:24MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 18:48CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Dmitri Voronkov, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 1:11CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Adam Fantilli, Cole Sillinger · Slap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 3:01CBJKirill MarchenkoPPGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Boone Jenner · Slap, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 9:54MINZeev BuiumPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 10:47CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Boone Jenner · Deflected, 0.06 xG6–3
- P3 15:49MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium · Tip-in, 0.11 xG6–4
- P3 18:34CBJBoone JennerENAssists: Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.71 xG7–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:05CBJDmitri Voronkov: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:50CBJMiles Wood: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:45CBJErik Gudbranson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:18CBJKent Johnson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 7:47CBJErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 12:37MINJake Middleton: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:35MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:13MINJake Middleton: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:13CBJKirill Marchenko: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 9:11CBJKent Johnson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 14:04CBJDmitri Voronkov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov10:11
xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Jenner – Sillinger – Fantilli6:43
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Wood – Aston-Reese – Lundeström7:27
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Johnson4:57
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFabbro – Mateychuk2:22
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Severson – Werenski2:41
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Werenski – Fabbro10:18
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Hartman – Trenin7:42
xG 0.79–0.35 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Kaprizov – Boldy – Rossi11:16
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 20–9goals 0–2
- Foligno – Tarasenko – Eriksson Ek7:01
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Haight – Ohgren6:04
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaber – Buium2:05
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber13:31
xG 0.74–0.64 (53%)attempts 24–15goals 0–2
- Bogosian – Middleton10:54
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).