Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 1, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 04 | 05 | 16 | 115 |
| EDM | 014 | 214 | 19 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:21EDMNoah PhilpAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Vasily Podkolzin · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 19:09EDMAndrew MangiapaneGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 0:47VANBrock BoeserAssists: Quinn Hughes, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 18:47EDMLeon DraisaitlENAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.57 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:24VANDerek Forbort: Holding2 min
- P1 17:07VANEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:40EDMTrent Frederic: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:55VANKiefer Sherwood: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:33EDMDarnell Nurse: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:33VANEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:07VANTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 14:00VANFilip Chytil: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:55EDMNoah Philp: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Philp won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGarland – Chytil – Bains2:06
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sherwood – Räty – Bains3:54
xG 0.02–0.02 (40%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Sherwood – O'Connor – Räty2:48
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson7:28
xG 0.33–0.48 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes15:26
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Myers – Pettersson12:09
xG 0.24–0.75 (25%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Forbort – Pettersson7:06
xG 0.09–0.81 (10%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Frederic11:39
xG 1.41–0.26 (84%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Mangiapane – Savoie8:19
xG 0.68–0.04 (95%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Philp – Podkolzin9:33
xG 0.45–0.34 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Henrique – Howard – Tomasek6:39
xG 0.09–0.14 (39%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:25
xG 1.64–0.16 (91%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Nurse – Regula13:13
xG 0.59–0.31 (65%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Kulak – Emberson11:03
xG 0.30–0.91 (25%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).