Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Seattle Kraken 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 010 | 17 | 03 | 127 |
| SEA | 09 | 14 | 02 | 17 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:58SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Vince Dunn · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 4:11VGKPavel DorofeyevPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- OT 4:56SEAJared McCannGWGAssists: Matty Beniers, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:32VGKColton Sissons: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:47SEAJamie Oleksiak: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:17VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:32SEABrandon Montour: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:32VGKBen Hutton: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:48VGKJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:49SEAJordan Eberle: Holding2 min
- P3 3:26SEARyan Winterton: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Marner – Dorofeyev6:07
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev5:26
xG 0.27–0.12 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel5:31
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Smith – Saad – Karlsson4:07
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:26
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Korczak12:53
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud15:14
xG 0.45–0.56 (45%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers9:51
xG 0.67–0.37 (65%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Tolvanen – Wright2:03
xG 0.08–0.00 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Kartye – Nyman7:48
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Marchment – Tolvanen – Wright5:56
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn16:51
xG 0.80–0.37 (69%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Mahura11:34
xG 0.10–0.30 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Montour – Lindgren16:24
xG 0.28–0.77 (27%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).