Mon, Oct 13, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Nashville Predators 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 16 | 314 | 426 |
| OTT | 07 | 012 | 113 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:11NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Michael Bunting, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P3 14:38NSHRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 17:57OTTRidly GreigPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Jake Sanderson · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:06NSHJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–1
- P3 19:48NSHCole SmithENAssists: Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.74 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:23OTTNick Jensen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 4:01NSHFedor Svechkov: Interference2 min
- P1 5:24NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min
- P1 9:33OTTShane Pinto: Holding2 min
- P1 14:41NSHNick Perbix: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:52OTTBrady Tkachuk: Bench2 min
- P1 19:50OTTTyler Kleven: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:53NSHErik Haula: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:31OTTShane Pinto: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:16OTTDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:49NSHErik Haula: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Evangelista – Svechkov5:01
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg3:13
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- O'Reilly – Forsberg – Kemell5:43
xG 0.16–0.15 (52%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Marchessault – Bunting8:36
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStastney – Barron11:37
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Josi – Wilsby11:56
xG 0.49–0.60 (45%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Skjei – Perbix12:09
xG 0.23–0.76 (23%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Amadio – Cozens4:18
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Eller – Cousins – Lycksell5:10
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle2:52
xG 0.17–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle4:32
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Sanderson2:01
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub10:23
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Jensen – Chabot9:39
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).