Mon, Oct 13, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Winnipeg Jets 5, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 211 | 15 | 526 |
| NYI | 012 | 212 | 011 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:35WPGMorgan BarronAssists: Cole Koepke, Logan Stanley · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:48WPGNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 2:05NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 2:19WPGLogan StanleyGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson, Morgan Barron · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 12:39WPGTanner PearsonAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
- P2 14:45NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 17:35WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Kyle Connor · Backhand, 0.82 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:52NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:50NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:33WPGCole Koepke: Interference2 min
- P1 15:58WPGColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:56WPGLogan Stanley: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:29WPGNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:38NYIScott Mayfield: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:55WPGMark Scheifele: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Iafallo – Chibrikov4:21
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Niederreiter – Namestnikov4:10
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi9:26
xG 0.25–0.55 (31%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Miller8:25
xG 0.42–0.42 (49%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Stanley3:50
xG 0.12–0.19 (39%)attempts 2–6goals 1–1
- Schenn – Morrissey2:47
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Duclair – Barzal8:33
xG 0.51–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Drouin – Horvat – Heineman6:51
xG 0.46–0.21 (69%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Lee – Pageau – Shabanov8:58
xG 0.51–0.29 (64%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Drouin – Horvat – Barzal2:00
xG 0.12–0.12 (48%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock9:17
xG 0.48–0.19 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Schaefer12:20
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- DeAngelo – Romanov11:48
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 16–8goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).