Mon, Oct 13, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 05 | 114 | 17 | 226 |
| PHI | 18 | 110 | 34 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54PHITyson FoersterAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 15:47PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 19:22FLASam ReinhartSHAssists: Anton Lundell · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 10:15FLASam BennettPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 15:50PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 17:43PHIBobby BrinkENAssists: Noah Cates, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–4
- P3 18:33PHIChristian DvorakENAssists: Travis Sanheim, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.83 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:23FLAAaron Ekblad: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:30PHIOwen Tippett: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:57PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:33FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:31FLAJesper Boqvist: Holding2 min
- P2 18:05FLASeth Jones: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:01PHIMatvei Michkov: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:00PHIOwen Tippett: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:33PHIGarnet Hathaway: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 13:38FLASam Bennett: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett6:14
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Marchand – Bennett – Luostarinen2:43
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell4:13
xG 0.37–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Greer – Kunin – Gadjovich5:24
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling10:40
xG 0.52–0.13 (81%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Jones – Mikkola11:13
xG 0.52–0.54 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Forsling – Mikkola3:23
xG 0.01–0.10 (5%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Michkov6:39
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Tippett – Zegras6:41
xG 0.50–0.17 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Grebenkin – Luchanko6:29
xG 0.19–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster8:37
xG 0.05–0.52 (8%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndrae – Drysdale4:14
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Juulsen – Andrae4:35
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Juulsen – Ginning2:12
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).