Mon, Oct 13, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
St. Louis Blues 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 318 | 16 | 536 |
| VAN | 08 | 211 | 010 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48STLJimmy SnuggerudAssists: Pius Suter, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:10STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Philip Broberg · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 5:33VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Aatu Räty, Arshdeep Bains · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 8:13STLJimmy SnuggerudPPGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.25 xG3–1
- P2 12:12VANKiefer SherwoodSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P2 13:45STLNick BjugstadAssists: Nathan Walker, Alexandre Texier · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 17:47STLJake NeighboursENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.34 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:45VANElias Pettersson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:18VANFilip Hronek: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:37VANDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:59STLDylan Holloway: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chytil won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Suter – Snuggerud11:32
xG 1.45–0.49 (75%)attempts 21–12goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Walker – Texier7:01
xG 0.63–0.08 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:19
xG 0.17–0.32 (34%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:38
xG 0.28–1.00 (22%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBroberg – Mailloux9:43
xG 0.56–0.06 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg6:23
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Tucker12:48
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Garland – Pettersson3:15
xG 0.70–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Sherwood – Räty – Bains10:04
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Chytil4:18
xG 0.21–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Pettersson6:47
xG 0.15–0.16 (47%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Pettersson12:34
xG 0.54–0.47 (53%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes22:05
xG 1.19–1.22 (49%)attempts 29–27goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Mancini11:37
xG 0.31–0.70 (31%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).