Mon, Oct 13, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 010 | 313 | 03 | 0 | 334 |
| MIN | 314 | 05 | 06 | 01 | 1 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:04MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 16:13MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Zeev Buium, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 16:33MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 3:53LAKKevin FialaAssists: Joel Armia, Brandt Clarke · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 6:22LAKQuinton ByfieldPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 19:14LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Quinton Byfield, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 2. LAK Adrian Kempe stopped
- 3. MIN Matt Boldy stopped
- 4. LAK Trevor Moore stopped
- 5. MIN Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 6. LAK Kevin Fiala stopped
- 7. MIN Marco Rossi scored
- 8. LAK Andrei Kuzmenko stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:16LAKWarren Foegele: Interference2 min
- P1 12:14LAKAndrei Kuzmenko: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:00LAKQuinton Byfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 15:18LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:40MINMarcus Foligno: Holding2 min
- P2 9:36LAKAlex Turcotte: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:21MINMarcus Johansson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:26LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:35MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Byfield
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Foegele – Moore9:57
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Armia – Fiala – Byfield8:47
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko10:27
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Turcotte – Laferriere – Malott6:06
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Dumoulin14:36
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Ceci2:11
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ceci – Anderson10:25
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Hartman – Trenin8:59
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Johansson – Tarasenko – Eriksson Ek8:22
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Ohgren – Yurov6:30
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Kaprizov – Boldy – Rossi10:15
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton13:01
xG 0.49–0.59 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Brodin – Faber18:04
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Buium9:47
xG 0.20–0.43 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).