Tue, Oct 14, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Seattle Kraken 4, Montréal Canadiens 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 04 | 212 | 26 | 00 | 422 |
| MTL | 14 | 111 | 26 | 11 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Ivan Demidov, Alexandre Carrier · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 3:33SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Shane Wright, Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 7:12MTLCole CaufieldUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 17:52SEAJani NymanAssists: Tye Kartye, Frederick Gaudreau · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 1:12MTLKirby DachAssists: Noah Dobson, Mike Matheson · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 4:48SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Jared McCann, Josh Mahura · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 7:56SEAJared McCannAssists: Brandon Montour, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 17:19MTLIvan DemidovAssists: Patrik Laine, Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 3:25MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:32SEAJosh Mahura: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:01MTLCole Caufield: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:06SEAVince Dunn: Interference2 min
- P1 11:40MTLIvan Demidov: Interference2 min
- P2 2:09MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:38MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:14SEAMason Marchment: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestMarchment – Winterton – Wright3:31
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers8:54
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Gaudreau – Kartye – Nyman6:47
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Tolvanen4:07
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Lindgren14:59
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Mahura12:29
xG 0.36–0.12 (74%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Larsson – Dunn13:52
xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Dach – Bolduc9:14
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:29
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Anderson – Evans – Laine7:08
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov7:03
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Guhle – Hutson14:33
xG 0.42–0.43 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Matheson – Hutson2:10
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Matheson – Dobson15:31
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 12–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).