Tue, Oct 14, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 215 | 17 | 03 | 325 |
| ANA | 26 | 110 | 16 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03PITJustin BrazeauAssists: Ryan Shea, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:01PITRickard RakellAssists: Ryan Shea, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 9:42ANAChris KreiderPPAssists: Leo Carlsson, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 19:25ANACutter GauthierAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Beckett Sennecke · Slap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 9:48ANADrew HellesonAssists: Chris Kreider · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 17:01PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 18:33ANAChris KreiderPPGWGAssists: Troy Terry, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:26PITMathew Dumba: Holding2 min
- P1 8:52PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:55PITRickard Rakell: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:01ANAFrank Vatrano: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 3:18PITErik Karlsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:26PITParker Wotherspoon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 19:48PITKris Letang: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Tomasino – Kindel10:49
xG 0.67–0.25 (73%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Malkin – Mantha – Brazeau10:28
xG 0.58–0.23 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell11:14
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Hallander – Dewar – Lizotte7:27
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Clifton11:31
xG 0.67–0.23 (74%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon17:00
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea13:57
xG 0.64–0.39 (62%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Johnston – Poehling – Nesterenko7:56
xG 0.04–0.02 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Kreider – Carlsson6:40
xG 0.38–0.50 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 1–2
- McTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke14:36
xG 0.43–0.57 (43%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Granlund – Vatrano – Terry12:02
xG 0.18–0.88 (17%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Helleson – Mintyukov13:49
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Trouba – Zellweger13:14
xG 0.52–0.72 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- Gudas – LaCombe15:33
xG 0.19–0.66 (22%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).