Wed, Oct 15, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Calgary Flames 1, Utah Mammoth 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 15 | 03 | 012 | 120 |
| UTA | 010 | 218 | 14 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37CGYRasmus AnderssonPPAssists: Morgan Frost, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.37 xG1–0
- P2 1:16UTABarrett HaytonAssists: Nick Schmaltz, John Marino · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 4:24UTAJJ PeterkaGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 19:37UTAKevin StenlundENUnassisted · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
Penalties (16)
- P1 7:21UTAMikhail Sergachev: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:44UTAKevin Stenlund: Interference2 min
- P1 13:44CGYAdam Klapka: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:34UTAClayton Keller: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:01CGYMorgan Frost: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:50CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min
- P2 8:10UTAJack McBain: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:10UTAKailer Yamamoto: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:10CGYKevin Bahl: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:10CGYJoel Farabee: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:32CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:38UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:38CGYAdam Klapka: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:48CGYBrayden Pachal: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:57CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:47UTAKarel Vejmelka: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cooley won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrost – Farabee – Coronato2:45
xG 0.57–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Sharangovich – Zary5:04
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Honzek9:15
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka4:20
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl12:28
xG 1.00–0.15 (87%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Pachal – Parekh7:45
xG 0.57–0.36 (61%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Hanley – Pachal2:21
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton8:32
xG 0.76–0.54 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Peterka – Guenther – Cooley6:02
xG 0.26–0.26 (49%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Crouse – Carcone – McBain4:09
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stenlund – Tanev – Yamamoto4:16
xG 0.04–0.24 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Simashev9:49
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Marino9:41
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Cole – Maatta6:29
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).