Thu, Oct 16, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Nashville Predators 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 16 | 14 | 03 | 219 |
| MTL | 06 | 010 | 211 | 13 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:36NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Roman Josi, Luke Evangelista · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 6:02MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Lane Hutson, Kaiden Guhle · Snap, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 11:21NSHNick PerbixAssists: Michael McCarron · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 19:40MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 4:57MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:27NSHTyson Jost: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:46NSHCole Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:05MTLZachary Bolduc: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:25MTLIvan Demidov: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 14:18NSHMichael McCarron: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Smith – Wiesblatt8:10
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:09
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Jost – Evangelista – Svechkov10:01
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Haula – Marchessault – Bunting9:04
xG 0.14–0.39 (26%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStastney – Barron12:53
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Josi – Wilsby16:47
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Skjei – Perbix16:15
xG 0.48–1.16 (29%)attempts 11–22goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský11:35
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov9:01
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Anderson – Evans – Laine7:25
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Gallagher – Dach – Bolduc8:14
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson7:53
xG 0.63–0.12 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Matheson – Hutson2:19
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Carrier – Struble6:27
xG 0.30–0.03 (92%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).