Thu, Oct 16, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Seattle Kraken 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 111 | 19 | 05 | 0 | 333 |
| OTT | 28 | 08 | 16 | 01 | 2 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:57SEAShane WrightAssists: Brandon Montour, Mason Marchment · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:42OTTShane PintoAssists: Lars Eller, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 9:35OTTDavid PerronPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 4:40SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 2:15SEAChandler StephensonPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 18:14OTTDylan CozensAssists: Drake Batherson, Jordan Spence · Snap, 0.01 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Drake Batherson stopped
- 2. SEA Jordan Eberle stopped
- 3. OTT Tim Stützle scored
- 4. SEA Jared McCann stopped
- 5. OTT Shane Pinto scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:35SEAAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:05SEARyan Winterton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:40OTTTyler Kleven: Holding2 min
- P3 0:31OTTFabian Zetterlund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:31OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestMarchment – Winterton – Wright11:22
xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Tolvanen10:37
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:56
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Kartye – Nyman4:29
xG 0.01–0.34 (4%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Mahura10:31
xG 0.56–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn13:19
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Montour – Lindgren14:55
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Zetterlund – Pinto7:52
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Cousins – Kaliyev7:03
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens7:50
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig2:17
xG 0.03–0.09 (24%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven15:35
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Chabot – Spence2:04
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub2:15
xG 0.02–0.17 (8%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).