Thu, Oct 16, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 1, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 16 | 09 | 07 | 122 |
| NJD | 012 | 113 | 28 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Brad Marchand, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 5:48NJDJack HughesPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 6:23NJDTimo MeierGWGAssists: Simon Nemec, Brenden Dillon · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 11:47NJDNico HischierAssists: Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:56NJDLuke Hughes: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:24FLAMackie Samoskevich: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:02NJDLuke Hughes: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 11:33FLACarter Verhaeghe: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:38NJDCody Glass: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:38FLAMackie Samoskevich: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:47FLABrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P2 5:04FLAEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:43NJDJesper Bratt: Interference2 min
- P2 18:25NJDBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:38NJDJesper Bratt: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:43FLAEvan Rodrigues: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hughes won the faceoff against Rodrigues
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Marchand – Bennett – Rodrigues4:56
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- Greer – Kunin – Gadjovich4:18
xG 0.01–0.08 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Samoskevich5:31
xG 0.18–0.30 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Lundell8:42
xG 0.05–0.26 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Balinskis7:31
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Jones – Mikkola12:45
xG 0.76–0.87 (47%)attempts 15–21goals 1–1
- Ekblad – Forsling11:36
xG 0.24–0.35 (40%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes7:32
xG 0.57–0.13 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer8:47
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Brown – Glass – Gritsyuk5:53
xG 0.33–0.23 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Cotter – Halonen5:05
xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes10:56
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Dillon – Nemec10:07
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler13:04
xG 0.78–0.98 (44%)attempts 21–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).