Thu, Oct 16, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 06 | 412 | 18 | 526 |
| DAL | 214 | 06 | 111 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:29DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Thomas Harley, Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 19:22DALMikko RantanenPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:40VANFilip ChytilAssists: Evander Kane, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 8:50VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 10:06VANMax SassonAssists: Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 18:54VANConor GarlandGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 17:52DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 19:23VANQuinn HughesPPAssists: Conor Garland, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.00 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:25VANJake DeBrusk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:25VANConor Garland: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:57DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:30VANAatu Räty: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:04DALThomas Harley: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:25VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 18:58DALMiro Heiskanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Bains – Sasson6:06
xG 0.42–0.11 (78%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Chytil12:15
xG 0.48–0.34 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Garland – Pettersson4:12
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Garland – Pettersson – O'Connor8:13
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Mancini3:04
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Pettersson14:03
xG 0.63–0.53 (54%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Hronek – Hughes13:00
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestErne – Bastian – Hryckowian4:55
xG 0.91–0.34 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Seguin – Robertson – Johnston9:27
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Bourque6:18
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Rantanen – Hintz – Steel10:51
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley8:55
xG 1.09–0.26 (81%)attempts 15–4goals 1–2
- Petrovic – Bichsel11:21
xG 0.98–0.40 (71%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley4:43
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).