Fri, Oct 17, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
San Jose Sharks 3, Utah Mammoth 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 29 | 15 | 321 |
| UTA | 212 | 111 | 311 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:39UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 13:31UTANick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 5:23SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Will Smith · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 7:13SJSJeff SkinnerAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Vincent Desharnais · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 16:09UTALiam O'BrienAssists: Brandon Tanev, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 0:54UTANick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 3:25UTAMichael CarconeAssists: Lawson Crouse · Snap, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 11:32UTAClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton · Snap, 0.09 xG2–6
- P3 16:51SJSMacklin CelebriniPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.09 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:07SJSNick Leddy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:07SJSDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:33UTAJack McBain: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:26SJSDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min
- P2 18:10SJSWill Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:54UTALogan Cooley: Holding2 min
- P3 6:54UTALogan Cooley: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:54SJSMacklin Celebrini: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:54SJSVincent Desharnais: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:54UTADmitri Simashev: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:34UTADylan Guenther: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Reaves – Goodrow – Gaudette7:12
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund11:46
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Skinner – Kurashev – Celebrini11:25
xG 0.40–0.56 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Dellandrea – Smith – Graf6:34
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 3–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Orlov13:54
xG 0.33–0.40 (46%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson8:52
xG 0.34–0.41 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Leddy – Dickinson2:21
xG 0.02–0.19 (8%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – Carcone – McBain9:17
xG 0.63–0.13 (82%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:34
xG 0.71–0.26 (74%)attempts 9–5goals 3–0
- Peterka – Guenther – Cooley10:22
xG 0.45–0.13 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev7:33
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Marino2:13
xG 0.49–0.05 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 2–0
- Sergachev – Simashev10:28
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Cole – Maatta7:35
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).