Sat, Oct 18, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Edmonton Oilers 3, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 113 | 28 | 330 |
| NJD | 04 | 214 | 35 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:07NJDJack HughesAssists: Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 16:02NJDJesper BrattPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 18:16EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 10:37NJDConnor BrownSHAssists: Luke Glendening · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 12:33NJDJack HughesGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 16:30EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 18:53NJDDawson MercerENAssists: Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–5
- P3 19:57EDMCurtis LazarAssists: Adam Henrique, Ty Emberson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:34NJDDawson Mercer: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:43EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:06NJDJesper Bratt: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:58EDMMattias Ekholm: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:02NJDCody Glass: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:06EDMTroy Stecher: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Lazar – Tomasek4:48
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Roslovic – Frederic – Savoie6:50
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Tomasek4:11
xG 0.09–0.14 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Mangiapane – McDavid3:54
xG 0.21–0.42 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:53
xG 0.76–0.41 (65%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Kulak – Emberson10:48
xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Kulak – Nurse4:55
xG 0.09–0.33 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes9:46
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer10:26
xG 0.60–0.46 (56%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Brown – Glass – Gritsyuk8:40
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Cotter – Halonen7:30
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hughes11:21
xG 0.92–0.22 (81%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler15:20
xG 0.80–0.38 (68%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Dillon – Nemec11:33
xG 0.37–0.61 (38%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).