Sat, Oct 18, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 16 | 06 | 310 | 422 |
| MTL | 28 | 08 | 18 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:33MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 3:42MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Ivan Demidov, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 11:56NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 0:34NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 4:11NYRMatthew RobertsonAssists: Artemi Panarin, Conor Sheary · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 5:51NYRArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Vladislav Gavrikov · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 8:26MTLNoah DobsonAssists: Jayden Struble, Josh Anderson · Snap, 0.01 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:11NYRUrho Vaakanainen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:50NYRConor Sheary: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:24MTLJosh Anderson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:10NYRSam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:10MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:32MTLAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min
- P3 0:58MTLArber Xhekaj: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:58NYRMatt Rempe: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:55MTLAlex Newhook: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:55NYRVladislav Gavrikov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Sheary – Lafrenière10:59
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Cuylle11:16
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Raddysh – Parssinen – Laba8:20
xG 0.16–0.06 (74%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Carrick – Edstrom – Rempe7:53
xG 0.16–0.60 (21%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox15:57
xG 0.52–0.22 (71%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Borgen – Schneider2:15
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Borgen – Robertson12:10
xG 0.47–0.52 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestVeleno – Bolduc – Beck7:30
xG 0.36–0.16 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans10:32
xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov7:50
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:17
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Xhekaj5:26
xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Matheson – Carrier3:57
xG 0.06–0.04 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson3:51
xG 0.27–0.26 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).