Sat, Oct 18, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 05 | 015 | 111 | 131 |
| WPG | 211 | 04 | 29 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Kyle Connor, Alex Iafallo · Slap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 10:25WPGNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 5:26WPGLogan StanleyAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P3 16:52WPGVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P3 18:56NSHMichael BuntingAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:00NSHSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:38NSHBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00WPGMorgan Barron: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:40WPGParker Ford: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:56WPGTanner Pearson: Interference2 min
- P2 8:28NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:28WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:43WPGJosh Morrissey: Playing without a helmet2 min
- P3 15:00NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Bunting5:57
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Forsberg – Jost – Svechkov3:38
xG 0.09–0.00 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Evangelista – Svechkov3:21
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Wiesblatt7:00
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Perbix2:05
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Blankenburg3:19
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Wilsby9:37
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi12:13
xG 1.11–0.38 (74%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Niederreiter – Namestnikov4:51
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Toews – Nyquist – Niederreiter4:59
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Namestnikov – Pearson – Iafallo3:24
xG 0.00–0.18 (2%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey14:36
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
- Schenn – Fleury9:36
xG 0.57–0.83 (41%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Stanley – Pionk12:44
xG 0.16–0.48 (25%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).