Sat, Oct 18, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Boston Bruins 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 02 | 05 | 114 |
| COL | 27 | 016 | 215 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11BOSJohn BeecherAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Mason Lohrei · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:08COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 10:22COLJosh MansonGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 4:14COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:23COLMartin NecasENAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:52COLNathan MacKinnon: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:58BOSFraser Minten: Holding2 min
- P2 6:40BOSHampus Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:35BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:53BOSFraser Minten: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:05COLJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P3 12:30BOSNikita Zadorov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Kastelic – Beecher9:27
xG 0.34–0.23 (60%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Eyssimont – Geekie – Mittelstadt6:57
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Arvidsson – Jeannot – Minten8:05
xG 0.09–0.52 (15%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Zacha7:38
xG 0.06–0.49 (11%)attempts 3–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Jokiharju15:13
xG 0.50–0.41 (55%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- McAvoy – Lohrei8:29
xG 0.11–0.36 (24%)attempts 9–17goals 1–1
- Lindholm – McAvoy4:18
xG 0.07–0.39 (15%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:31
xG 0.95–0.00 (100%)attempts 23–3goals 2–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Drury8:17
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Bardakov – Brindley6:48
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin8:48
xG 0.10–0.13 (45%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:16
xG 0.91–0.00 (100%)attempts 25–3goals 2–0
- Burns – Manson11:01
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Solovyov – Malinski11:10
xG 0.29–0.20 (59%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).