Sat, Oct 18, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, San Jose Sharks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 018 | 15 | 24 | 327 |
| SJS | 011 | 011 | 09 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:35PITSidney CrosbyGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 7:02PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Justin Brazeau, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P3 19:38PITEvgeni MalkinENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–0
Penalties (3)
- P3 12:34PITBryan Rust: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:05SJSNick Leddy: Holding2 min
- P3 16:25PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestNovak – Hallander – Kindel8:54
xG 0.88–0.42 (68%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte9:29
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell13:00
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 8–20goals 1–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Brazeau9:32
xG 0.52–0.96 (35%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Brunicke13:18
xG 1.44–0.66 (69%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Letang – Shea17:05
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Jones2:10
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Wennberg – Eklund11:58
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Goodrow – Dellandrea – Graf9:06
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Smith – Misa8:34
xG 0.59–0.78 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Skinner – Gaudette – Celebrini12:26
xG 0.38–0.64 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Dickinson13:22
xG 0.80–0.29 (74%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Leddy – Iorio10:45
xG 0.76–0.35 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Leddy – Desharnais3:07
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).