Mon, Oct 20, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Minnesota Wild 3, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 116 | 011 | 25 | 332 |
| NYR | 16 | 011 | 07 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:57NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 5:10MINJonas BrodinAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 8:16MINDanila YurovGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 18:24MINKirill KaprizovENAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:11NYRWill Borgen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:08NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:37NYRWill Cuylle: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:05MINJake Middleton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Trenin – Jones7:03
xG 0.25–0.04 (87%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy12:40
xG 0.92–0.88 (51%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Hartman8:05
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Johansson – Tarasenko – Yurov6:18
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Jiricek10:21
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Buium12:28
xG 0.71–0.64 (53%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Brodin – Faber18:03
xG 0.80–0.85 (49%)attempts 19–21goals 2–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Panarin – Cuylle13:23
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Miller – Sheary – Lafrenière11:45
xG 0.73–0.57 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
- Carrick – Edstrom – Rempe6:50
xG 0.27–0.29 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Raddysh – Parssinen – Laba4:33
xG 0.16–0.58 (21%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Soucy – Schneider8:40
xG 0.41–0.59 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Borgen – Robertson14:28
xG 0.86–1.06 (45%)attempts 18–24goals 1–1
- Gavrikov – Fox19:55
xG 0.32–0.83 (28%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).