Mon, Oct 20, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Seattle Kraken 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 19 | 06 | 223 |
| PHI | 210 | 311 | 06 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:16SEAJordan EberleAssists: Cale Fleury, Berkly Catton · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 9:56PHIOwen TippettAssists: Nick Seeler, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:19PHITyson FoersterPPAssists: Bobby Brink, Cam York · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 4:59PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Egor Zamula, Matvei Michkov · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 5:32PHINoah CatesPPAssists: Cam York, Trevor Zegras · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 8:33SEAJani NymanPPAssists: Matty Beniers, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P2 15:40PHIOwen TippettAssists: Sean Couturier, Cam York · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:40SEAAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:04PHICam York: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:26SEAJosh Mahura: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:50PHINikita Grebenkin: Instigator2 min
- P1 13:50SEACale Fleury: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:50PHINikita Grebenkin: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:50PHINikita Grebenkin: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 5:13SEAJohn Hayden: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:40PHIJamie Drysdale: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:39PHITravis Sanheim: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:50SEARyan Lindgren: Instigator2 min
- P3 10:50SEARyan Lindgren: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:50PHITravis Konecny: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:50SEARyan Lindgren: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 10:54PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:41PHIJett Luchanko: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Beniers – Catton9:03
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Eberle – Schwartz – Beniers3:16
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Marchment – Winterton – Wright4:50
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Tolvanen – Catton2:52
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindgren – Fleury6:05
xG 0.47–0.07 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Fleury2:18
xG 0.09–0.03 (78%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Lindgren5:36
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Tippett10:56
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Hathaway – Grebenkin – Luchanko3:22
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster8:35
xG 0.02–0.20 (8%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Zegras – Michkov7:37
xG 0.07–0.30 (19%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Zamula11:41
xG 0.62–0.12 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Seeler – Drysdale10:27
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York12:07
xG 0.44–0.43 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).