Tue, Oct 21, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
San Jose Sharks 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 216 | 013 | 17 | 336 |
| NYI | 38 | 112 | 07 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:29SJSCollin GrafSHAssists: Ty Dellandrea · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 9:26NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Matthew Schaefer · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 10:30NYICasey CizikasAssists: Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 14:16SJSAdam GaudetteAssists: Michael Misa, Collin Graf · Snap, 0.30 xG2–2
- P1 19:28NYIEmil HeinemanPPAssists: Anders Lee, Maxim Shabanov · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 6:38NYIMatthew SchaeferGWGAssists: Anthony Duclair, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 10:16SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:55SJSMario Ferraro: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:15NYIScott Mayfield: Interference2 min
- P1 18:13SJSSam Dickinson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:24NYIJonathan Drouin: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:46SJSVincent Desharnais: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:41NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Smith – Celebrini13:26
xG 0.76–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Gaudette – Graf – Misa8:30
xG 0.84–0.35 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Skinner – Wennberg – Eklund10:16
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Reaves – Goodrow – Dellandrea4:13
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Ferraro13:59
xG 1.29–0.13 (91%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson10:14
xG 1.05–0.42 (71%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Leddy – Iorio14:18
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Shabanov8:06
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Drouin – Horvat – Heineman11:41
xG 0.13–0.43 (23%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Holmstrom – Tsyplakov5:03
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 3–6goals 1–2
- Palmieri – Duclair – Barzal12:36
xG 0.32–1.14 (22%)attempts 5–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Schaefer13:53
xG 0.27–0.54 (34%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – Boqvist10:19
xG 0.42–1.03 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock16:42
xG 0.18–1.29 (12%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).