Tue, Oct 21, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Seattle Kraken 1, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 06 | 03 | 110 | 119 |
| WSH | 111 | 216 | 17 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30WSHNic DowdAssists: John Carlson, Brandon Duhaime · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:25WSHRyan LeonardGWGAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 1:33WSHJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 3:50SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Ben Meyers · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 19:10WSHTom WilsonENAssists: Nic Dowd, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:50SEARyan Lindgren: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:09SEAJaden Schwartz: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:24WSHEthen Frank: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:45WSHBrandon Duhaime: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Beniers – Catton11:16
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Hayden – Kartye – Meyers5:56
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Eberle – Schwartz – Beniers2:26
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Tolvanen10:11
xG 0.06–0.33 (15%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindgren – Fleury13:30
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:09
xG 0.42–0.78 (35%)attempts 9–15goals 0–2
- Oleksiak – Mahura14:40
xG 0.28–0.79 (26%)attempts 10–23goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – McMichael – Lapierre7:01
xG 0.77–0.03 (96%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – McMichael – Protas2:55
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Frank9:53
xG 0.30–0.26 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier7:44
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun11:37
xG 0.82–0.12 (87%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry10:34
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry4:40
xG 0.20–0.03 (85%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).