Tue, Oct 21, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 4, Boston Bruins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 17 | 19 | 27 | 423 |
| BOS | 06 | 013 | 312 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:01FLAMackie SamoskevichPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 2:01FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Jonah Gadjovich · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 2:46BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 4:46BOSElias LindholmPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 9:58FLAEetu LuostarinenAssists: Brad Marchand, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 18:29BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P3 19:34FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Sam Bennett, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:33BOSTanner Jeannot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 1:28FLASergei Bobrovsky: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:12FLAJonah Gadjovich: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:12BOSJeffrey Viel: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:40FLABrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:58FLANiko Mikkola: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:35BOSPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:43BOSElias Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:29FLANiko Mikkola: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:44BOSJeffrey Viel: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:44FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:44BOSNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:44FLASam Reinhart: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:39FLAEvan Rodrigues: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Minten won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Luostarinen – Lundell10:42
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich9:13
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Greer – Kunin – Gadjovich3:10
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Bennett11:49
xG 0.29–0.38 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola14:48
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Petry – Balinskis9:29
xG 0.42–0.88 (32%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Ekblad – Forsling16:21
xG 0.59–1.06 (36%)attempts 5–23goals 2–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Viel – Kastelic8:03
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt9:18
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Eyssimont – Jeannot – Minten4:37
xG 0.07–0.17 (31%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie11:51
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcAvoy – Lohrei9:29
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Zadorov – Jokiharju12:48
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Peeke – Harris11:21
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).