Tue, Oct 21, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 214 | 06 | 39 | 529 |
| DAL | 05 | 113 | 05 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Boone Jenner, Kent Johnson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:42CBJBoone JennerPPGWGAssists: Charlie Coyle, Damon Severson · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 11:58DALTyler SeguinAssists: Colin Blackwell, Adam Erne · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 7:21CBJDenton MateychukAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Zachary Aston-Reese · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 14:26CBJDmitri VoronkovPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Kirill Marchenko · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 17:00CBJKent JohnsonENAssists: Adam Fantilli · Wrist, 0.41 xG5–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:40CBJCole Sillinger: Holding2 min
- P1 17:11DALMavrik Bourque: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:47CBJIvan Provorov: Holding2 min
- P3 13:45DALColin Blackwell: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAston-Reese – Lundeström – Chinakhov7:42
xG 0.37–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli10:00
xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Monahan – Marchenko – Voronkov12:11
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger12:29
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov16:29
xG 0.89–0.16 (85%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Werenski – Fabbro2:27
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fabbro – Christiansen11:02
xG 0.30–0.44 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Erne – Bastian3:16
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Robertson – Bourque – Johnston11:47
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Rantanen – Hintz – Steel6:56
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Seguin – Blackwell – Erne5:17
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen12:17
xG 0.44–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley9:19
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Bichsel3:15
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).