Wed, Oct 22, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Minnesota Wild 1, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 011 | 112 | 131 |
| NJD | 114 | 111 | 210 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:21NJDPaul CotterAssists: Connor Brown, Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 6:08NJDBrenden DillonGWGAssists: Dawson Mercer, Simon Nemec · Snap, 0.01 xG0–2
- P3 4:53NJDArseny GritsyukPPAssists: Timo Meier · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 10:37MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Zeev Buium · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 18:43NJDJesper BrattENAssists: Jonas Siegenthaler · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:12MINMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min
- P2 11:21NJDBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P2 16:14NJDLuke Hughes: Interference2 min
- P3 4:49MINDavid Jiricek: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:52NJDLuke Hughes: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Boldy – Rossi4:28
xG 0.67–0.23 (74%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Johansson – Tarasenko – Rossi5:34
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Hartman – Trenin2:53
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Hartman7:33
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber16:35
xG 0.97–0.77 (56%)attempts 20–19goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Buium12:27
xG 1.00–0.94 (51%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Middleton – Jiricek11:01
xG 0.23–0.32 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Cotter – Mercer9:12
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Noesen – Glendening – Halonen4:55
xG 0.19–0.16 (54%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes10:01
xG 0.71–1.03 (41%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Gritsyuk11:35
xG 0.30–0.82 (27%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Nemec15:40
xG 0.70–0.33 (68%)attempts 21–17goals 2–1
- Pesce – Hughes16:13
xG 1.23–1.20 (51%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler15:35
xG 0.59–1.13 (34%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).