Thu, Oct 23, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Utah Mammoth 7, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 410 | 18 | 27 | 725 |
| STL | 03 | 27 | 210 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:18UTAIan ColeAssists: JJ Peterka, Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 6:07UTALogan CooleyAssists: Dylan Guenther, JJ Peterka · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 7:57UTALogan CooleyAssists: Dylan Guenther, Olli Maatta · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–0
- P1 10:55UTALogan CooleyPPAssists: Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–0
- P2 5:58STLPius SuterAssists: Colton Parayko, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 7:13STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P2 19:24UTAClayton KellerGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 2:19STLNathan WalkerAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 5:43STLPhilip BrobergAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Colton Parayko · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 9:51UTANick SchmaltzPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Clayton Keller · Tip-in, 0.08 xG6–4
- P3 18:20UTAClayton KellerENAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton · Wrist, 0.71 xG7–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:16STLOskar Sundqvist: Holding2 min
- P1 10:34STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:58UTAMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:58STLNathan Walker: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:58STLTyler Tucker: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:58UTALawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:58UTAMichael Carcone: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:29STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:26UTAClayton Keller: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:41UTANick Schmaltz: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:21UTADylan Guenther: Holding2 min
- P3 8:14STLPius Suter: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Cooley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestPeterka – Guenther – Cooley9:24
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 3–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev7:32
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton9:21
xG 0.02–0.12 (17%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Crouse – Carcone – McBain8:10
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Maatta7:27
xG 0.49–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Marino10:35
xG 0.42–0.20 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Cole – Schmidt2:13
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWalker – Joseph – Suter3:42
xG 0.78–0.10 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Schenn – Neighbours – Snuggerud5:40
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Sundqvist – Holloway2:37
xG 0.11–0.02 (87%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Sundqvist – Walker3:45
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Broberg10:22
xG 0.46–0.10 (83%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg7:24
xG 0.41–0.11 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Fowler – Mailloux6:02
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).