Fri, Oct 24, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 012 | 12 | 416 | 530 |
| CBJ | 012 | 010 | 113 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:19WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Connor McMichael, Hendrix Lapierre · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 1:36WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 2:40WSHJustin SourdifAssists: Ryan Leonard, Logan Thompson · Snap, 0.19 xG3–0
- P3 10:20CBJDenton MateychukAssists: Sean Monahan, Dmitri Voronkov · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 15:39WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Ethen Frank, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–1
- P3 16:37WSHConnor McMichaelPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Aliaksei Protas · Bat, 0.26 xG5–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:04CBJDmitri Voronkov: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:54WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:52CBJKirill Marchenko: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:18WSHEthen Frank: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:19WSHHendrix Lapierre: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:35CBJMathieu Olivier: Elbowing5 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – McMichael – Lapierre7:09
xG 0.89–0.76 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Protas – Sourdif – Leonard5:37
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier6:14
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Frank8:23
xG 0.03–0.31 (10%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun9:34
xG 1.31–0.84 (61%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Carlson – Chychrun3:11
xG 0.24–0.07 (76%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry9:15
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov9:30
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Aston-Reese – Lundeström – Chinakhov7:54
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli8:04
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger8:21
xG 0.55–1.17 (32%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Mateychuk14:57
xG 1.35–0.40 (77%)attempts 20–11goals 1–1
- Severson – Provorov14:34
xG 1.27–1.32 (49%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Fabbro8:18
xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).