Sat, Oct 25, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
New York Islanders 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 14 | 113 | 15 | 04 | 1 | 326 |
| PHI | 08 | 18 | 29 | 01 | 2 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:51NYISimon HolmstromSHAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 6:15NYIAnthony DuclairAssists: Marshall Warren, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 10:29PHIChristian DvorakAssists: Trevor Zegras, Matvei Michkov · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 1:54PHITrevor ZegrasAssists: Christian Dvorak, Jamie Drysdale · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 4:21NYIMaxim TsyplakovAssists: Marshall Warren, Tony DeAngelo · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 7:32PHITrevor ZegrasPPAssists: Bobby Brink, Cam York · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Bobby Brink stopped
- 2. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
- 3. PHI Trevor Zegras scored
- 4. NYI Simon Holmstrom scored
- 5. PHI Matvei Michkov scored
- 6. NYI Anthony Duclair stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:52PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min
- P1 9:12NYIEmil Heineman: Interference2 min
- P1 16:40NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:40PHIGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:26NYITony DeAngelo: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:30PHIChristian Dvorak: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:12NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:12PHINikita Grebenkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:12PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:12NYIMatthew Schaefer: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:12PHIRodrigo Abols: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:12NYIKyle MacLean: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:19NYIScott Mayfield: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Tsyplakov6:06
xG 0.48–0.20 (70%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Duclair – Barzal13:25
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom7:35
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Drouin – Horvat – Heineman14:02
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Schaefer14:19
xG 0.70–0.72 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer2:43
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock15:27
xG 0.42–0.50 (45%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Dvorak – Zegras – Michkov10:15
xG 0.52–0.47 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Hathaway – Abols – Grebenkin5:19
xG 0.33–0.30 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Cates – Brink – Foerster11:11
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett12:16
xG 0.41–0.62 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale12:36
xG 0.99–0.30 (77%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Sanheim – York18:30
xG 0.54–0.53 (51%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Drysdale3:21
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).