Sat, Oct 25, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Colorado Avalanche 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 012 | 110 | 233 |
| BOS | 28 | 17 | 04 | 319 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 14:16BOSViktor ArvidssonAssists: Mason Lohrei, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 14:55BOSMichael EyssimontAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 19:55BOSMorgan GeekieGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 19:40COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 18:15COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 2:35COLIlya Solovyov: Holding2 min
- P2 8:38BOSPavel Zacha: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:27BOSSean Kuraly: Holding2 min
- P3 2:33COLBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:53BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:49COLBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00COLMartin Necas: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Drury
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:59
xG 1.40–0.14 (91%)attempts 24–4goals 1–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin8:35
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Kelly – Bardakov – Brindley3:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Colton – Drury8:11
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:12
xG 1.06–0.20 (84%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Burns – Manson13:04
xG 0.96–0.30 (76%)attempts 24–6goals 0–2
- Solovyov – Malinski8:19
xG 0.10–0.31 (25%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt9:20
xG 0.22–0.27 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Kastelic – Beecher6:19
xG 0.08–0.15 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Eyssimont – Jeannot – Minten6:18
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 3–10goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie10:33
xG 0.22–0.73 (23%)attempts 5–22goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- McAvoy – Jokiharju2:02
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Peeke – Callahan2:09
xG 0.04–0.05 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Lohrei2:04
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).