Sat, Oct 25, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 116 | 19 | 213 | 03 | 3 | 541 |
| PIT | 27 | 08 | 215 | 01 | 2 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:59PITRyan SheaAssists: Anthony Mantha, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:44CBJCharlie CoyleAssists: Dante Fabbro, Cole Sillinger · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 18:01PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Justin Brazeau · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 17:39CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 1:55CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Isac Lundeström · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 4:54CBJDmitri VoronkovAssists: Sean Monahan, Kirill Marchenko · Deflected, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 14:54PITKris LetangPPAssists: Tommy Novak, Arturs Silovs · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 16:54PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.14 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Kent Johnson scored
- 2. PIT Bryan Rust scored
- 3. CBJ Adam Fantilli scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 5. CBJ Kirill Marchenko scored
- 6. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:45CBJBoone Jenner: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:45PITMathew Dumba: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:44PITTommy Novak: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 19:01PITRyan Shea: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:27CBJErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:18CBJBoone Jenner: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:02CBJCole Sillinger: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov12:11
xG 0.74–0.41 (64%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Aston-Reese – Lundeström – Chinakhov6:20
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger9:40
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli10:39
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 21–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Mateychuk16:15
xG 1.11–0.46 (70%)attempts 26–11goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov14:35
xG 0.50–0.29 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 3–2
- Gudbranson – Fabbro9:42
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Dewar – Lizotte9:13
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Brazeau10:55
xG 0.41–0.78 (35%)attempts 8–18goals 2–2
- Novak – Hallander – Tomasino8:10
xG 0.03–0.42 (7%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell10:59
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 7–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Letang – Shea14:37
xG 0.98–0.97 (50%)attempts 18–23goals 2–1
- Letang – Karlsson2:42
xG 0.06–0.16 (29%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Dumba – Clifton12:59
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).