Sun, Oct 26, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Colorado Avalanche 3, New Jersey Devils 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 210 | 09 | 15 | 00 | 324 |
| NJD | 210 | 13 | 09 | 12 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09NJDArseny GritsyukAssists: Timo Meier · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:48NJDJack HughesAssists: Simon Nemec, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 12:55COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Cale Makar, Victor Olofsson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 17:03COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 12:51NJDConnor BrownAssists: Simon Nemec · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 13:55COLBrock NelsonAssists: Ross Colton, Sam Malinski · Snap, 0.22 xG3–3
- OT 1:53NJDJack HughesGWGAssists: Simon Nemec · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 7:28COLBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:26NJDTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:56NJDLuke Hughes: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas12:59
xG 0.90–0.45 (67%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Olofsson7:04
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Kelly – Bardakov – Brindley4:53
xG 0.16–0.21 (44%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton4:23
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar17:22
xG 1.13–0.47 (71%)attempts 21–15goals 2–1
- Manson – Makar2:26
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Toews2:17
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Glendening – Halonen4:43
xG 0.15–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Gritsyuk12:21
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Brown – Cotter – Mercer10:58
xG 0.71–0.85 (45%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes10:53
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Nemec9:58
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Hughes5:45
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Dillon – Hamilton6:40
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).