Sun, Oct 26, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Utah Mammoth 3, Winnipeg Jets 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 06 | 216 | 110 | 332 |
| WPG | 08 | 28 | 014 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:45WPGDylan DeMeloAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 10:03UTAMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 11:07UTAMichael CarconeAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Nate Schmidt · Slap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 15:09WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 14:24UTADylan GuentherGWGAssists: Logan Cooley, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:00WPGNikita Chibrikov: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:20WPGNeal Pionk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:12UTAJohn Marino: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:52WPGNikita Chibrikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:52UTAJJ Peterka: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:07WPGLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P3 17:45WPGGustav Nyquist: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cooley won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Hayton10:12
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Peterka – Guenther – Cooley11:30
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Stenlund – Tanev – Yamamoto8:48
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Crouse – Carcone – McBain8:02
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino13:04
xG 1.25–0.29 (81%)attempts 25–10goals 2–0
- Schmidt – Simashev2:00
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cole – Maatta8:50
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:23
xG 0.95–0.58 (62%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Niederreiter – Namestnikov10:00
xG 0.45–0.21 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Iafallo – Chibrikov7:46
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke8:16
xG 0.32–0.80 (28%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Pionk14:37
xG 1.20–0.65 (65%)attempts 20–17goals 0–1
- Stanley – Pionk2:17
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:57
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).