Sun, Oct 26, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 3, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 013 | 17 | 29 | 00 | 329 |
| VAN | 18 | 210 | 08 | 11 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:42VANBrock BoeserAssists: Evander Kane, Marcus Pettersson · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 2:22VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Conor Garland · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 16:32EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Evan Bouchard, Jack Roslovic · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 19:19VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 1:21EDMJack RoslovicAssists: Vasily Podkolzin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 14:57EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- OT 1:43VANKiefer SherwoodGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Conor Garland · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:05VANConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:56EDMVasily Podkolzin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:19EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:30VANMarcus Pettersson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Mangiapane – McDavid14:29
xG 1.00–0.34 (75%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin12:46
xG 0.71–0.56 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Howard – Savoie – Tomasek6:02
xG 0.25–0.16 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Henrique – Lazar – Frederic10:54
xG 0.28–0.25 (53%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard18:18
xG 1.42–0.24 (86%)attempts 24–9goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Walman14:46
xG 0.67–0.63 (52%)attempts 17–16goals 1–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard2:21
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Kane – Boeser – Reichel12:52
xG 0.62–0.67 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Bains – Sasson5:25
xG 0.11–0.25 (31%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Sherwood – O'Connor – Räty11:32
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Garland – Pettersson13:06
xG 0.28–0.61 (32%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Joseph2:14
xG 0.35–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Joseph2:57
xG 0.01–0.02 (39%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Joseph – Mancini4:52
xG 0.02–0.16 (12%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).