Mon, Oct 27, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
St. Louis Blues 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 28 | 010 | 110 | 328 |
| PIT | 210 | 18 | 38 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39PITBryan RustAssists: Erik Karlsson, Filip Hallander · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 0:55PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Justin Brazeau · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 4:15STLNick BjugstadAssists: Nathan Walker, Tyler Tucker · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P1 15:43STLJordan KyrouAssists: Brayden Schenn, Dylan Holloway · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 6:37PITParker WotherspoonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 0:42PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 4:35STLMathieu JosephAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Snap, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 16:39PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 16:59PITEvgeni MalkinENAssists: Justin Brazeau · Wrist, 0.74 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:04PITTommy Novak: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:17PITTommy Novak: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:10PITHarrison Brunicke: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:39PITEvgeni Malkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:39STLNick Bjugstad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Walker – Toropchenko6:48
xG 0.48–0.10 (83%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Texier4:55
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway9:40
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Joseph – Texier2:58
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTucker – Mailloux12:04
xG 0.79–0.09 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Parayko – Broberg2:15
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Faulk – Broberg15:42
xG 0.42–0.78 (35%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Mantha – Brazeau11:33
xG 0.97–0.14 (88%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Hallander13:19
xG 0.90–0.50 (64%)attempts 16–21goals 3–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte8:52
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Novak – Koivunen – Kindel8:44
xG 0.11–0.92 (11%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon17:52
xG 0.88–0.53 (62%)attempts 12–15goals 3–0
- Letang – Shea15:27
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
- Dumba – Brunicke14:09
xG 0.44–0.80 (36%)attempts 11–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).