Tue, Oct 28, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 114 | 110 | 113 | 12 | 439 |
| BUF | 09 | 212 | 116 | 01 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09CBJEgor ChinakhovUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 11:39BUFJosh DoanAssists: Alex Tuch, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 14:12BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Bowen Byram, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 19:44CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 2:40BUFJosh DunneAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Mattias Samuelsson · Poke, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 13:55CBJMiles WoodAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Dante Fabbro · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 2:53CBJMiles WoodGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Isac Lundeström · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 18:27CBJDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:20BUFAlex Tuch: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00CBJKirill Marchenko: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00BUFBowen Byram: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CBJDmitri Voronkov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Marchenko – Voronkov12:01
xG 1.54–0.56 (73%)attempts 22–17goals 0–1
- Jenner – Johnson – Fantilli12:46
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Wood – Lundeström – Chinakhov11:03
xG 0.58–0.62 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Sillinger10:29
xG 0.38–0.86 (30%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro4:05
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Severson – Provorov17:57
xG 1.07–0.66 (62%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
- Fabbro – Christiansen9:40
xG 0.37–0.11 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – McLeod – Doan9:26
xG 0.98–0.55 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Dunne9:58
xG 0.53–0.44 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Zucker – Quinn – Ostlund10:56
xG 0.43–0.47 (48%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Thompson – Kulich – Benson13:41
xG 0.32–1.08 (23%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kesselring – Byram15:45
xG 0.49–0.61 (45%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Timmins – Power16:05
xG 1.26–1.71 (43%)attempts 13–25goals 1–2
- Samuelsson – Dahlin16:32
xG 0.43–1.06 (29%)attempts 16–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).