Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Anaheim Ducks 3, Florida Panthers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 27 | 03 | 01 | 2 | 317 |
| FLA | 012 | 010 | 26 | 05 | 1 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:59ANALeo CarlssonSHAssists: Troy Terry, Drew Helleson · Snap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 12:27ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 11:12FLAAnton LundellAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 16:54FLASam ReinhartAssists: Seth Jones, Carter Verhaeghe · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Leo Carlsson stopped
- 2. FLA Sam Reinhart stopped
- 3. ANA Troy Terry scored
- 4. FLA Anton Lundell scored
- 5. ANA Mason McTavish scored
- 6. FLA Evan Rodrigues stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:28FLAJesper Boqvist: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:52FLAEvan Rodrigues: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:38ANAOlen Zellweger: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:43ANABeckett Sennecke: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:13ANAIan Moore: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:34FLACarter Verhaeghe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:00FLANiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
- P2 19:00ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:00FLAA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:24FLASam Bennett: Cross checking2 min
- OT 2:54ANAMason McTavish: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundell won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Nesterenko – Carlsson9:49
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Johnston – Poehling – Colangelo2:13
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Vatrano – Harkins – Colangelo4:25
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
- Killorn – Vatrano – Poehling2:05
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLaCombe – Moore2:00
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Trouba – LaCombe3:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Mintyukov9:07
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues12:19
xG 0.87–0.49 (64%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Luostarinen – Lundell – Samoskevich8:32
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Bennett – Greer – Boqvist6:54
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kunin – Gregor – Schwindt3:33
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Balinskis8:24
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:06
xG 0.44–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Jones – Mikkola11:48
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).