Tue, Oct 28, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 2, Boston Bruins 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 210 | 010 | 015 | 235 |
| BOS | 04 | 311 | 27 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08NYIBo HorvatAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 4:52NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 3:57BOSElias LindholmPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 6:49BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Andrew Peeke · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 7:48BOSMichael EyssimontGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Nikita Zadorov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 5:48BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 16:37BOSFraser MintenENAssists: Michael Eyssimont · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:14BOSNikita Zadorov: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:38NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:18NYIMarshall Warren: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:09BOSHampus Lindholm: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:23BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:51NYIAdam Pelech: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:16NYIMathew Barzal: Holding2 min
- P3 11:47BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDrouin – Horvat – Heineman8:17
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Cizikas – MacLean – Tsyplakov7:53
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Duclair – Barzal9:03
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom9:07
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Schaefer10:44
xG 0.47–0.13 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- DeAngelo – Warren9:43
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:40
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Eyssimont – Kastelic8:01
xG 0.36–0.12 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov7:34
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt7:55
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Jeannot – Khusnutdinov – Minten2:53
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – McAvoy12:42
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Aspirot11:19
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Peeke12:08
xG 0.28–0.58 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).