Tue, Oct 28, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Ottawa Senators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 39 | 08 | 324 |
| CHI | 38 | 15 | 313 | 726 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47CHIColton DachAssists: Louis Crevier, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:06CHILouis CrevierAssists: Jason Dickinson, Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 17:53CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Frank Nazar · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 2:58CHIConnor BedardGWGAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Artyom Levshunov · Snap, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 4:58OTTJake SandersonAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P2 7:09OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 8:31OTTTim StützleAssists: Nikolas Matinpalo, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 3:46CHIConnor BedardAssists: Ryan Greene · Snap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 8:24CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Connor Bedard, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–6
- P3 12:44CHIFrank NazarENAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.79 xG3–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:52CHISam Rinzel: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:37OTTDavid Perron: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:24CHISam Rinzel: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:31CHISam Lafferty: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 11:36CHITyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:36OTTNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:36CHITyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:36OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:36CHISam Rinzel: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:36OTTNick Cousins: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:36CHITyler Bertuzzi: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nazar won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Amadio – Pinto10:01
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Cousins – Batherson – Stützle8:46
xG 0.25–0.05 (85%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Lycksell7:38
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Perron – Cozens – Greig9:16
xG 0.38–0.36 (51%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot15:17
xG 0.97–0.32 (75%)attempts 24–13goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo12:33
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Chabot – Sanderson2:10
xG 0.00–0.06 (1%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Bertuzzi – Nazar9:23
xG 0.43–0.11 (79%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Lafferty – Dach3:54
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard11:06
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 2–1
- Dickinson – Donato – Dach9:26
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Crevier2:27
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kaiser2:22
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Levshunov6:41
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).