Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Montréal Canadiens 4, Seattle Kraken 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 27 | 05 | 17 | 12 | 421 |
| SEA | 05 | 05 | 311 | 00 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:25MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 17:28MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.24 xG2–0
- P3 5:55MTLAlex NewhookPPAssists: Kirby Dach, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 8:57SEABrandon MontourPPAssists: Berkly Catton, Mason Marchment · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 15:17SEAShane WrightAssists: Brandon Montour, Eeli Tolvanen · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:17SEABrandon MontourAssists: Vince Dunn, Jaden Schwartz · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 0:44MTLCole CaufieldGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Poke, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:45MTLCole Caufield: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:17SEARyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:58MTLJoseph Veleno: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:59MTLZachary Bolduc: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:09SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:57MTLJayden Struble: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:20SEAJani Nyman: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:20MTLKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:21
xG 0.62–0.14 (82%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Veleno – Dach – Bolduc10:30
xG 0.21–0.00 (98%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans7:53
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Newhook – Kapanen – Demidov5:25
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Xhekaj7:53
xG 0.32–0.09 (77%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Struble – Hutson13:42
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson2:17
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestKartye – Nyman – Meyers2:29
xG 0.08–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Nyman – Wright3:46
xG 0.06–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Winterton5:43
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Marchment – Tolvanen – Wright6:31
xG 0.00–0.04 (11%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Montour – Lindgren13:02
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Montour – Mahura2:41
xG 0.08–0.13 (39%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Montour – Dunn3:09
xG 0.00–0.05 (8%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).