Thu, Oct 30, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 013 | 116 | 211 | 00 | 340 |
| BOS | 25 | 19 | 05 | 13 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:07BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 15:07BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 16:01BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Zach Benson, Tage Thompson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:39BOSMark KastelicAssists: Tanner Jeannot, Sean Kuraly · Poke, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 7:00BUFJosh DoanAssists: Alex Tuch, Owen Power · Bat, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 14:25BUFAlex TuchAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 2:07BOSMarat KhusnutdinovGWGAssists: Fraser Minten · Snap, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:09BUFJosh Dunne: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:24BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:02BOSMarat Khusnutdinov: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:45BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:40BUFMichael Kesselring: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:44BOSPavel Zacha: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00BOSPavel Zacha: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:03BOSMichael Eyssimont: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:03BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:25BOSMichael Eyssimont: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 18:43BUFJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – McLeod – Doan8:21
xG 0.83–0.21 (80%)attempts 12–9goals 2–1
- Zucker – Greenway – Quinn4:49
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Thompson – Kulich – Benson9:19
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Dunne2:16
xG 0.06–0.00 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin15:37
xG 1.02–0.42 (71%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Timmins – Power8:39
xG 0.86–0.45 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Kesselring – Byram11:22
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Pastrnak – Khusnutdinov5:54
xG 0.27–0.11 (70%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Jeannot – Geekie – Minten7:45
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Pastrnak – Geekie – Khusnutdinov2:17
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Eyssimont – Khusnutdinov3:01
xG 0.10–0.37 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Zadorov – McAvoy15:00
xG 0.47–0.59 (45%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Aspirot13:28
xG 0.64–0.96 (40%)attempts 17–21goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Peeke12:19
xG 0.14–0.96 (12%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).