Thu, Oct 30, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Nashville Predators 1, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 114 | 09 | 133 |
| PHI | 03 | 28 | 27 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:45PHITrevor ZegrasAssists: Matvei Michkov, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 15:41PHIJamie DrysdaleGWGAssists: Matvei Michkov, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 18:03NSHMatthew WoodAssists: Michael Bunting, Erik Haula · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 7:00PHITrevor ZegrasPPAssists: Cam York, Noah Cates · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 15:54PHITravis KonecnyENAssists: Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:54PHIJamie Drysdale: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:57PHIBobby Brink: Interference2 min
- P3 6:57NSHNicolas Hague: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:17NSHErik Haula: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:17PHINoah Cates: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista9:49
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Svechkov5:48
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Wiesblatt9:27
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Bunting – Wood4:59
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStastney – Barron13:42
xG 0.71–0.10 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Hague – Blankenburg15:16
xG 1.17–0.57 (67%)attempts 21–15goals 0–2
- Skjei – Perbix15:27
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Konecny – Tippett2:23
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tippett – Zegras – Michkov2:24
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 2–0
- Konecny – Abols – Zegras2:30
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Abols – Tippett – Michkov2:04
xG 0.08–0.09 (46%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Andrae12:48
xG 0.51–0.29 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York18:58
xG 0.21–0.96 (18%)attempts 8–26goals 1–0
- Seeler – Drysdale15:51
xG 0.36–1.13 (24%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).