Thu, Oct 30, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vancouver Canucks 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 19 | 14 | 15 | 00 | 1 | 418 |
| STL | 110 | 111 | 116 | 02 | 0 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23STLDylan HollowayAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:08VANKiefer SherwoodPPAssists: Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 0:58STLJimmy SnuggerudPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Jordan Binnington · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 10:42VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Drew O'Connor, Marcus Pettersson · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 7:04VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Aatu Räty, Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 10:48STLPius SuterPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. STL Jordan Kyrou stopped
- 2. VAN Kiefer Sherwood stopped
- 3. STL Jimmy Snuggerud stopped
- 4. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
- 5. VAN Jake DeBrusk scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:32STLLogan Mailloux: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:57STLLogan Mailloux: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:03VANMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 2:01STLColton Parayko: Throwing equipment2 min
- P2 18:58VANKevin Lankinen: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:53VANMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Pettersson – Sherwood2:05
xG 0.29–0.11 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kane – MacEachern – Reichel2:42
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrusk – Pettersson2:08
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Sherwood – O'Connor2:35
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Joseph12:40
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Myers – Pettersson3:10
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hronek – Pettersson10:38
xG 0.24–0.39 (37%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Kyrou – Dvorsky6:43
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Kyrou3:31
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Walker – Toropchenko4:37
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Suter – Holloway8:29
xG 0.16–0.20 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTucker – Mailloux8:51
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fowler16:25
xG 0.72–0.53 (57%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Parayko – Broberg17:54
xG 0.73–0.57 (56%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).