Thu, Oct 30, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Rangers 4, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 116 | 08 | 210 | 11 | 435 |
| EDM | 110 | 214 | 09 | 03 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44NYRJonny BrodzinskiUnassisted · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 6:51EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Jake Walman, Jack Roslovic · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 8:48EDMMatt SavoiePPAssists: Adam Henrique, Leon Draisaitl · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 10:24EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Isaac Howard, Jake Walman · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 8:18NYRBraden SchneiderAssists: Will Cuylle, Urho Vaakanainen · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 12:04NYRTaylor RaddyshAssists: Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 2:49NYRJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Braden Schneider, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:16EDMTroy Stecher: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:48NYRNoah Laba: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:18EDMIsaac Howard: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:28NYRAdam Fox: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:19NYRMika Zibanejad: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Panarin – Cuylle8:42
xG 1.02–0.13 (89%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Sheary – Lafrenière7:50
xG 0.55–0.12 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lafrenière – Cuylle – Laba4:06
xG 0.20–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Sheary – Raddysh – Parssinen3:11
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Borgen11:37
xG 1.72–0.17 (91%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Vaakanainen – Schneider13:20
xG 0.72–0.64 (53%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Gavrikov – Fox15:33
xG 0.56–0.75 (43%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Frederic – Savoie6:33
xG 0.53–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin11:51
xG 0.54–0.90 (38%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Mangiapane – McDavid10:56
xG 0.23–1.20 (16%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Stecher5:17
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Kulak – Stecher2:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kulak – Emberson11:18
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).