Fri, Oct 31, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Colorado Avalanche 4, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 110 | 26 | 426 |
| VGK | 09 | 07 | 27 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:41COLMartin NecasAssists: Cale Makar, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:32COLBrock NelsonAssists: Jack Drury · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 2:51VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 10:11COLBrent BurnsGWGAssists: Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 12:01VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Tomas Hertl, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 18:22COLCale MakarENAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:06COLJack Drury: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:24COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:26COLBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:00VGKZach Whitecloud: Holding2 min
- P2 16:58COLParker Kelly: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:26COLBrent Burns: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:55COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:11VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas12:06
xG 1.06–0.42 (72%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Landeskog – Olofsson – Drury8:24
xG 0.47–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton9:21
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Kelly – Bardakov – Brindley3:11
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson12:20
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Solovyov – Malinski9:58
xG 0.29–0.07 (80%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar12:52
xG 0.83–0.68 (55%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Smith – Saad – Karlsson7:22
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Reinhardt8:03
xG 0.16–0.20 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Holtz8:25
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev11:37
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hutton – Whitecloud12:16
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Korczak12:51
xG 0.35–0.72 (33%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore13:50
xG 0.47–0.93 (33%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).