Sat, Nov 1, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 015 | 011 | 29 | 235 |
| NSH | 311 | 07 | 16 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:29NSHMichael BuntingAssists: Spencer Stastney, Justin Barron · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 11:18NSHMatthew WoodAssists: Michael Bunting, Nick Blankenburg · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 14:17NSHJonathan MarchessaultPPGWGAssists: Michael Bunting, Matthew Wood · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 4:39CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Jake Bean, Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 11:57CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:36NSHFilip ForsbergENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.52 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:15CGYJake Bean: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:03CGYKevin Bahl: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:07CGYMorgan Frost: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:39CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:39NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:39CGYBrayden Pachal: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:48NSHSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:07NSHSpencer Stastney: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:35CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Honzek9:26
xG 0.70–0.17 (81%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato3:59
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka6:43
xG 0.23–0.12 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich3:26
xG 0.14–0.11 (57%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley13:07
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Bean – Pachal10:39
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Andersson – Bahl14:12
xG 0.50–0.73 (41%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista7:56
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Haula – Marchessault7:30
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- McCarron – Bunting – Wiesblatt2:12
xG 0.04–0.06 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Bunting – Svechkov – Wood5:08
xG 0.06–0.39 (13%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Stastney – Barron13:13
xG 0.76–0.85 (47%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
- Skjei – Perbix15:21
xG 0.36–0.47 (44%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Hague – Blankenburg11:12
xG 0.26–0.49 (34%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).