Sat, Nov 1, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Dallas Stars 3, Florida Panthers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 27 | 15 | 05 | 0 | 322 |
| FLA | 06 | 212 | 17 | 03 | 1 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:48FLABrad MarchandAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 4:02FLASam ReinhartAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P2 14:47DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Sam Steel, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 15:01DALJustin HryckowianPPAssists: Thomas Harley, Sam Steel · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 12:26FLASam BennettAssists: Gustav Forsling, Mackie Samoskevich · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 17:19DALMikko RantanenAssists: Sam Steel, Jason Robertson · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. FLA Anton Lundell stopped
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 3. FLA Sam Reinhart stopped
- 4. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 5. FLA Brad Marchand scored
- 6. DAL Mikko Rantanen stopped
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:52DALNathan Bastian: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:38FLAGustav Forsling: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:35FLASeth Jones: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rodrigues won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Rantanen – Robertson – Johnston12:48
xG 0.37–0.52 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Seguin – Steel – Bourque10:27
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
- Faksa – Erne – Bastian9:24
xG 0.04–0.25 (15%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Bäck – Hryckowian8:26
xG 0.04–0.37 (10%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Lyubushkin3:15
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Heiskanen – Harley5:04
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
- Petrovic – Bichsel12:23
xG 0.10–0.35 (23%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Boqvist – Samoskevich10:37
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Reinhart – Rodrigues15:11
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Greer – Gregor – Schwindt8:40
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Marchand – Luostarinen – Lundell11:33
xG 0.40–0.63 (39%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola17:15
xG 0.95–0.18 (84%)attempts 26–11goals 1–0
- Petry – Sebrango13:08
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling16:02
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).